the mid-day power Index

inspired by college basketball’s kenpom rankings, we set out to create a power ranking system that is purely predictive. using current data, our algorithm estimates how strong each team could be in a vacuum, free from situational factors and based solely on a mix of team data variables

the core variables driving these power rankings are:

ORTG & DRTG adjusted for the strength of opposing offenses and defenses to capture true performance quality

pythagorean win percentage built on the concept that a team's expected win percentage can be estimated from its offensive and defensive ratings. this win rate reflects each team's relative scoring and stopping power

consistency by measuring variability in scoring metrics, we reward teams that maintain stable, predictable performances so far this season

other factors include strength of schedule and plus/minus

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5)

Shai is at the top of his game, J-Dub just keeps getting better, and they may never run out of perimeter defenders. Terrifying to imagine what they could look like with Chet back in the fold.

2. Boston Celtics (21-5)

Five out offenses are the dream, but they’re much easier to run when you have a roster full of versatile offensive weapons. This offense isn’t slowing down anytime soon, and that defense never takes nights off. The champs haven’t missed a step. 

3. Cleveland Cavs (23-4)

Two towering defensive presences in the middle with two explosive guards running the show, this Cavs team is as real as it gets. Side note, let’s stop undervaluing chemistry, years without roster turnover has done wonders for this Cleveland squad. 

4. Memphis Grizzlies (18-9)

Ja Morant is back and still very good at basketball. The only team that seems allergic to P&Rs plays that same brand of gritty, attacking basketball, and it hasn’t stopped working. Shoutout to Jaylen Wells while we’re at it. 

5. Dallas Mavericks (17-9)

Luka and Kyrie can win any given game on their own, but when they aren’t up to par the Mavs have a balanced set of weapons to compliment them. From Naji Marshall to PJ Washington to Klay, Dallas has it all, and you can’t forget about that potent rim running duo in Lively and Gafford.

6. New York Knicks (16-10)

Remember the panic that set in after that opening night drubbing at the hands of the Celtics? Turns out all these Knicks needed was time to gel. The defense hasn’t been on the same level as years past, but that offense is humming. 

7. Houston Rockets (17-9)

Houston just has so many good basketball players. Sengun continues to excel as an unorthodox creator, Vanvleet and Brooks are stabilizing presences and reliable contributors, and the terror twins are always on standby, ready to flip games in a matter of minutes.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (14-11)

Like the Knicks, there was an adjustment period after the preseason trade, but the Wolves look to be settling in. Ant has kept his playoff momentum, McDaniels, NAW, and Gobert continue to hold down a daunting defense, and Julius Randle has gradually adapted to his new setting.

9. Golden State Warriors (14-11)

As long as you have number 30, you’re going to have a strong team, but Draymond’s improved shooting coupled with a largely revamped roster has made the dubs even stronger. It will be fascinating to see what Dennis Schroeder does for them.

10. Orlando Magic (17-11)

You can’t have injury luck worse than Orlando’s, but even with their two super wings the Magic have found a way to hold things together. Jalen Suggs is constantly evolving, and the team's depth has been on full display. Still, they need Franz and Paolo back asap.

11. Miami Heat (13-11)

Tyler Herro has been the story here. The combo guard has found a way to level up yet again, gradually fulfilling his potential as a scorer and facilitator. Outside of that, you know the Heat are going to scrap it out with anyone in the league.

12. Denver Nuggets (13-10)

Jokic is out of his mind entirely. No regard for life, the Serbian has been on another level, but the rest of this roster just isn’t up to par. Murray has been a rollercoaster and MPJ can still disappear from time to time. Get 15 some help, can’t waste a season like this.

13. Sacramento Kings (13-13)

The Kings are one fun team to watch. Fox is as explosive as it gets, DeRozan always has something for nba fans pining for the days of the midrange, and Sabonis puts up robust stat lines rivaled only by that bad man in Denver. Sacramento could be a team to watch as the deadline approaches.

14. Milwaukee Bucks (14-11)

That start was brutal, but the Bucks have found a way to right the ship, fueled by that dynamic duo we’ve all been waiting for. Giannis has been something else, Dame is figuring it out, and role guys like AJ Green, Andre Jackson, and Gary Trent have stepped up. 

15. Los Angeles Clippers (14-12)

How about Norman Powell? We all had our eyes on James Harden, but Powell has reached heights many of us thought not possible for the shooting guard, as he’s now up to 23 ppg. They’re a fun watch, and maybe a potential play in team.

16. Phoenix Suns (14-11)

When they’re healthy, the Suns have enough firepower to contend with any team in the Western conference. To compliment that star power they’ve built a significantly more balanced roster than years past, hopefully they can stay injury free long enough to get this thing moving.

17. San Antonio Spurs (13-13)

How many people would’ve said the Spurs would be .500 nearing Christmas Day? Wemby’s growth has been steady, CP3 has made life a hell of a lot easier for the French phenom, and Stephon Castle’s ROTY campaign is on the rise. The rebuild is looking promising

18. Atlanta Hawks (14-13)  

A team in transition, Atlanta is in the midst of an identity change. With Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson providing as dynamic a wing duo as you’ll find, Trae has taken on more of a playmaking role than ever before. It’s a process, but the Hawks are a team to monitor as the season goes on.

19. Indiana Pacers (12-15)

That defense has gotten any better, and that breakneck offense has taken a substantial step back. In short, they need the real Tyrese Haliburton back immediately.

20. Chicago Bulls (12-15) 

Vucevic and LaVine are having highly efficient years, and Josh Giddey has slotted in nicely as a transition playmaker. You’d hope to see them shop some of their assets near the deadline, but you never know with this front office.

21. Detroit Pistons (11-16)  

The Pistons are noticeably better than the travesty they were last year, but it’s still a work in progress. Cade’s found his groove as a high efficiency scorer and playmaker, but outside of him there’s still a lot to be cemented. We’ll see how this develops

22. Los Angeles Lakers (14-12) 

After that scorching start, the Lakers have come crashing back down to earth. AD has been out of this world, and though he’s not the same LBJ he once was, LeBron has remained a upper echelon playmaker and offensive weapon. Unfortunately outside of those two and Austin Reaves they are searching for answers.

23. Brooklyn Nets (10-16)

The Nets are a fun team to watch, even after shipping their best player to NorCal. Cam Thomas can fill it up, Ben Simmons is always an interesting guy to watch, and Cam Johnson is quietly having a phenomenal year. Another team that will be super interesting to monitor at the deadline.

24. Toronto Raptors (7-20)

RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Gradey Dick are as interesting a young forward trio as we’ve seen in recent memory. A really phenomenal league pass watch, and a squad to keep tabs on in the coming years.

25. Philadelphia 76ers (8-16)

I mean this one’s been ugly. Joel Embiid doesn’t look near healthy, Paul George has struggled to find his footing, and now Jared McCain is done for the year. The good news is they have Tyrese Maxey, the bad news is everything else.

26. Charlotte Hornets (7-19)

Lamelo Ball has delivered heater after heater to start the year, but increasing his efficiency and limiting his turnovers are a must. Brandon Miller has continued to grow when healthy, but the injury bug just keeps coming after him.

27. Portland Trailblazers (8-18)

There really haven’t been all that many positives out of rip city. We’re still waiting on the leaps from Shaedon Sharpe or Scoot, and Deni Avdija seems to still be adjusting to his new setting. But hey, rebuilds have to start somewhere.

28. Utah Jazz (5-19)

There’s a lot of fun young talent in Utah. Keyonte George looks like a talented combo guard, Lauri continues to play like an enamoring stretch 4, and John Collins has revitalized his game in Salt Lake City. That said, we’re not sure how many games they are actually trying to win

29. New Orleans Pelicans (5-22)

Man it would be really nice to see a healthy Zion season, but with each passing year you have to wonder if we ever will. Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, and Herb Jones are real assets, but their best days may be in different cities.

30. Washington Wizards (3-21)

Bilal Coulibaly is a promising two-way talent, and that’s all the good things we have to say. Hopefully it will get better soon, because DC fans shouldn’t have to endure consecutive seasons like this.